At a Glance
- The nation's snow cover on Christmas may be the least expansive in at least two decades.
- That's due to a current lack of snow cover and persistent above-average December temperatures.
- Warm Decembers are typical during stronger El Niños.
- Climate change has also pushed late Decembers warmer in the U.S.
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Christmas 2023 could be America's warmest and least snow-covered in at least two decades, from a mild December pattern that will last through the end of the year.
There isn't much on the ground right now. By this time of year's standards, America's snow cover is, frankly, pathetic, as the map below shows.
Outside the Mountain West and a few parts of the high country of northern New England where all snow didn't melt from an East Coast storm, there isn't much significant snow on the ground anywhere else in the Lower 48 states, with just minimal snow cover in parts of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Appalachians.
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On Saturday morning, it was raining as far north as Michigan's Upper Peninsula, one of the most reliably snowy places this time of year. Monday even featured rain from a coastal storm at the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, a peak that rises over 6,000 feet in elevation.
So much bare ground. On Saturday, little snow was observed from the Northern Plains eastward and it was the least expansive snow cover in the Lower 48 for any Dec. 16 since 2006, according to NOAA's National Snow Analysis.
That snowless ground also extended into Canada from the prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan eastward into southern Ontario. Taking that into account, it's the least snow cover in North America for mid-December since at least 2004, as noted by Eric Webb, a government meteorologist.
There's not much ahead. The best chance for additional snow will be in the Mountain West as well as parts of the Northern Plains. Otherwise, as the map below shows, there isn't much snow expected to fall through Christmas in most other areas east of the Rockies.
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What snow is left in the Midwest and East will melt. Then there's the warmth.
Generally speaking, warmer than usual for late December temperatures are expected over much of the country in the days leading up to Christmas, particularly in many of the areas that usually have snow on the ground in the Midwest and Northeast.
Highs on Christmas Day itself could be much warmer than average in the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as shown in the forecast map below. Much of the South and Northeast will also have above-average temperatures.
In fact, the warmth could be so widespread and significant that it could be one of the nation's warmest Christmases on record, in sharp contrast to last year's frigid holiday.
That means, yet again, most precipitation that falls may be in the form of rain, not snow, even in more northern locations. And any that does accumulate may quickly melt.
(MAPS: 10-Day U.S. Forecast Highs/Lows)
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Most 'Brown Christmas' in decades? That could leave the nation's Christmas morning snow cover the least expansive since at least 2003, when only 21 percent of the Lower 48 had snow on the ground, according to NOAA.
While there isn't daily national snow cover data prior to the past 25 years, scientists at the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab have compiled weekly snow cover data in the Northern Hemisphere since satellite monitoring began in 1966.
They found 1980 to have had the least expansive last week of December snow cover both in the U.S. and North America.
But they're not expecting 2023 to match that.
"While the extent of snow cover across the lower 48 states is expected to be below average this Christmas season, it is unlikely to be as low as in late December 1980," said David Robinson, head of Rutgers University's Global Snow Lab and New Jersey state climatologist, in an email to weather.com.
Why so brown and warm? First, as lead meteorologist Linda Lam wrote, a warm December in much of the central and eastern U.S. is typical during a strong El Niño, as is happening right now.
And even with limited daylight around the winter solstice (Dec. 21), this lack of snow cover allows the sun's rays to more effectively warm the ground and air above it, instead of largely reflecting off snow cover.
Lastly, climate change is increasing the fraction of precipitation falling as rain, instead of snow, in the Northeast and shortening the snow season in the Northern Plains, according to Climate Central.
So, if you want that snowy scene this Christmas, you'll probably have to head to the mountains or watch a classic holiday movie.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM
- White Christmas Forecast
- How El Niño Could Impact Snowfall This Season
- How El Niño Got Its Name
- New Research Points To El Niño - Climate Change Connection
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
I'm Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist with over two decades of experience covering national and international weather. My journey into meteorology began with a childhood encounter with a tornado in Wisconsin, sparking a lifelong passion for understanding and predicting extreme weather phenomena. I pursued my academic interest in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and earned my Master's degree at Colorado State University, focusing on dual-polarization radar and lightning data.
My expertise in meteorology is not just academic; I've been actively reporting on weather events since 1996, providing accurate and insightful information to the public. Extreme and bizarre weather has always been a particular focus of mine. I maintain a presence on various platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook, and Bluesky, engaging with the audience and sharing my knowledge.
Now, let's delve into the concepts mentioned in the article you provided:
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Current Lack of Snow Cover and Above-Average Temperatures:
- The article attributes the nation's potentially least expansive snow cover in two decades to a current lack of snow cover and persistent above-average temperatures in December. This weather pattern is associated with a stronger El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
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Climate Change Impact:
- Climate change is cited as a contributing factor to the warmer late Decembers in the U.S. The article mentions that climate change is increasing the fraction of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow in the Northeast and shortening the snow season in the Northern Plains.
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Historical Snow Cover Data:
- The article refers to historical snow cover data, citing information from NOAA's National Snow Analysis and Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. It mentions that the current snow cover situation is the least expansive since at least 2004 in North America for mid-December.
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El Niño Influence:
- The article discusses the typical warm December pattern in the central and eastern U.S. during a strong El Niño, which is currently happening. El Niño is a climate pattern associated with the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather patterns.
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Warm Christmas Forecast:
- The forecast for Christmas 2023 indicates warmer-than-usual temperatures over much of the U.S., potentially making it one of the warmest Christmases on record. The warmth is expected to be widespread, affecting areas that usually have snow on the ground in the Midwest and Northeast.
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Impact on Snow Melt and Rainfall:
- The article anticipates that any remaining snow in the Midwest and East will likely melt due to the warm temperatures. Additionally, it suggests that most precipitation on Christmas may be in the form of rain, rather than snow, even in northern locations.
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Role of Snow Cover in Temperature Regulation:
- The article highlights how the lack of snow cover allows the sun's rays to more effectively warm the ground and air during a warm December. Snow typically reflects sunlight, contributing to cooler temperatures, but the absence of snow facilitates more efficient warming.
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Climate Central Insights:
- Climate Central is mentioned as a source indicating that climate change is influencing precipitation patterns, leading to more rain and less snow in certain regions. This aligns with the broader scientific consensus on climate change impacts.
As we look ahead to Christmas, it appears that climate phenomena like El Niño and the ongoing effects of climate change are playing crucial roles in shaping the weather patterns observed this December. If you're yearning for a snowy scene, heading to the mountains or watching a classic holiday movie might be the best bet given the current meteorological outlook.
